One thought about 31 FBS coaching changes
The coaching carousel may never stop. Let's talk initial impressions.
Is the coaching carousel done? Well, about that.
Three weeks ago, we set the over/under for additional head coach changes before the season at 1.5. The over has already cashed, as three coaches have left their jobs. I have decided to just publish this list now and perhaps update it again later. If I wait for the job changes to stop, I may literally never publish this thing.
How’d every school do? We’ll find out later. But here’s one thought (or so) about each change, because what is more important than a first impression?
Alabama: Nick Saban out, Kalen DeBoer in
Godfrey and I did a whole podcast about DeBoer’s challenges in Tuscaloosa and why the critical task for Alabama is converting general enthusiasm about the program into short-term NIL dollars. I will mostly refer to that, but here’s a Year 1 prediction: Alabama goes 9-3 but makes the Playoff as the 12th seed after insufferable media lobbying, then wins a first-round game and leaves everyone feeling pretty decent about the state of things heading into DeBoer’s second year.
Arizona: Jedd Fisch out, Brent Brennan in
It is probably not good that Arizona decided to let the athletic director hire the football coach and then fired said AD literally days later over an issue that the school has known about for a year.
Boise State: Andy Avalos out, Spencer Danielson in
It looked like Boise made this hire in large part because the players liked Danielson as interim coach. Historically, that is not a good reason to hire a coach, but the calculus might be different in a portal world. Early returns are good: Danielson won the Mountain West in a pinch, and the team did not suffer a mass transfer defection after the season. Plus, ex-USC five-star Malachi Nelson is here now.
Boston College: Jeff Hafley out, Bill O’Brien in
Some people value being a head coach, some people value lifestyle and play-calling, and everyone values job security. Those things are why Hafley is a Green Bay Packer and O’Brien decided he’d rather be a Boston College head coach than an Ohio State coordinator. I do not put much stock in Hafley’s representation leaking that his BC departure was an indictment of college football.
Buffalo: Mo Linguist out, Pete Lembo in
In 2016, Lembo left a MAC head coaching job at Ball State to become a special teams coach and assistant head coach at Maryland. In 2024, he left a special teams/AHC job at South Carolina to become a MAC head coach at Buffalo. What I am saying is this: It’s not clear why he wanted this job. (He’s from Staten Island, which isn’t exactly close but has led to a lot of mid-Atlantic recruiting experience.) My hunch is that Buffalo wanted Lembo because they don’t think he’ll leave, as Lance Leipold did after winning a bunch of games and as Linguist just did to become Alabama’s co-defensive coordinator.
Duke: Mike Elko out, Manny Diaz in
A businesslike, sensible hire to replace a businesslike, sensible hire.
Georgia State: Shawn Elliott out, new hire TBD
As in Hafley’s case, there has been some effort to paint Elliott’s departure (after spring ball already started!) as an indictment of the sport. I don’t think so. Georgia State never broke out of mediocrity under Elliott, even as a long list of Sun Belt schools that don’t have obvious resource advantages made run after run at national relevance. He appeared closer to getting fired than to any other outcome. It makes sense that Elliott would want to return to South Carolina as an assistant, but the sport’s troubles aren’t why.
Houston: Dana Holgorsen out, Willie Fritz in
Fritz is a relatively chill coach who specializes in predictable stability. Holgorsen is, you know, not that. Congrats to everyone at Houston on getting to take a deep breath. Maybe.
Indiana: Tom Allen out, Curt Cignetti in
If Indiana manages to avoid the bottom falling out of its football program to such an extent that it one day causes the Hoosiers to miss out on a superleague and have to put their basketball team in a conference with Butler, the moment they paid Allen’s buyout and hired Cignetti could go down as the turning point.
James Madison: Curt Cignetti out, Bob Chesney in
Winners win. Chesney, who won at Holy Cross, should win here.
Michigan: Jim Harbaugh out, Sherrone Moore in
As Richard and Godfrey outlined shortly before Michigan made it official, Moore was a slam dunk. Harbaugh’s best gift to Michigan was the national title. His next best gift was getting suspended and giving his heir apparent a chance to prove himself on the highest-pressure stage imaginable. I wasn’t on the Harbaugh/Moore emergency show, but I want to offer my own thoughts on something Richard argued.
Hiring Moore could increase the chances that Michigan faces tough NCAA discipline from the Stalions-contra scandal. Moore is not subject to head coach responsibility rules from his time as a coordinator, so it actually does matter (unlike in Harbaugh’s case) whether he was personally involved in whatever Stalions was doing. But the NCAA is a fickle and arbitrary beast and may well decide to press a tougher case because Michigan’s coaching staff is still in the hands of people who were around back then. It gives the NCAA more people to punish who were at least theoretically at fault (i.e., not players).
Richard got a lot of pushback from Michigan fans for saying that while someone could convince him that Harbaugh didn’t know what Stalions was up to, they couldn’t convince him that Michigan’s coordinators were ignorant. I thought his point was more than fair. I can buy that people made successful efforts to insulate Harbaugh, who was verging on a messianic figure at Michigan. I have a harder time convincing myself that the people running Michigan’s offense and defense did not ever get an inkling of how the analyst under them was getting his information. Maybe they didn’t! But on many staffs, coordinators, position coaches, and analysts work closely and exchange a lot of information. Good coordinators have every reason to vet what flows from their underlings. It’s not a salacious thing to suspect, and it does not become gossip-rag stuff just because the NCAA and Big Ten haven’t unearthed incriminating texts.
tldr: Michigan won a dominant national title, one that cannot be asterisked by any reasonable person, and then hired an excellent coach to succeed an all-timer. Life is hopefully good enough that a fanbase full of lawyers can accept that not everyone will believe the whole thing stopped with one weird, determined guy.
Middle Tennessee: Rick Stockstill out, Derek Mason in
It was time three years ago. It was really time now. There is no reason whatsoever that an activated Middle Tennessee cannot be the No. 2 program in the new CUSA behind Liberty.
Michigan State: Mel Tucker out, Jonathan Smith in
Smith is an excellent coach. He may find himself outflanked in a brutal conference, but he gives MSU a shot.
We have talked a lot about the recklessness displayed by Mel Tucker in his dealings with Brenda Tracy, an anti-sexual assault advocate who had spoken with Tucker’s players. Tucker’s admitted actions were so wildly dumb that I think many of us in the college football media have gotten hung up on the bag-fumbling element of it all: Tucker had this big contract and let it slip away.
Brenda Tracy did not deserve to be part of that story. She has been a necessary, effective advocate against sexual violence on college campuses. The manner of Tucker’s firing highlighted why college sports needs more people like her.
Mississippi State: Zach Arnett out, Jeff Lebby in
If Lebby learned a single useful lesson from his father-in-law Art Briles’ management of Baylor, he has never articulated it in public. Hiring him is a small-time move by a program that thinks it can turn an association with shitty, shameless behavior into a market inefficiency.
Nevada: Ken Wilson out, Jeff Choate in
Choate’s last head coaching job was at Montana State State from 2016 to 2020. Since then, he’s been a co-DC at Texas. Those are both better jobs than the one he just took, aren’t they? Some guys just like being head coaches.
New Mexico: Danny Gonzales out, Bronco Mendenhall in
Hard job. Cool hire, though. Bronco must have badly wanted back in the game.
New Mexico State: Jerry Kill out, Tony Sanchez in
Question: Did Jerry Kill’s 17-11 run in two seasons at NMSU, including a 10-win year in 2023, make this a more attractive job for ascendant coaches?
Answer: They just hired a guy who went 20-40 at UNLV and was last a head coach in 2019.
(It’s not that simple. Sanchez was on Kill’s staff as receivers coach. But it is mostly that simple.)
Northwestern: Pat Fitzgerald out, David Braun in
It’s hard to overstate how lucky Northwestern was with the timing of Fitzgerald’s hiring of Braun as defensive coordinator last offseason. It meant that when Fitzgerald self-immolated, the Wildcats had a guy on staff who had experience at an elite program (North Dakota State) and, critically, had not been around Evanston for the events that led to Fitzgerald’s axing. Braun pulled the best coaching job in the Big Ten and prevented Northwestern from going into what could have been an immediate, multi-year teardown. There has never been a more obvious moment for a school to hire the interim guy.
Oregon State: Jonathan Smith out, Trent Bray in
This was not a good time for Oregon State to go shopping, and it made sense to elevate Bray and aim for some stability as the Beavers and Washington State head into a great unknown. I have no idea how he’ll do, but he’ll perform a great service if he can just hold things together for a few years, for starters.
San Diego State: Brady Hoke out, Sean Lewis in
The only path for San Diego State to capture hearts and minds and fill a beautiful new stadium is to win a lot of games. But Hoke’s years of boring, bad offense could not have helped build enthusiasm. I think play style can be an overrated facet in the hiring of a new coach, but SDSU did need to hire a guy who’d run a pretty spread offense and give the scoreboard a workout. The first step to getting more attention is to put a product on the field that does not make the viewers’ eyes bleed.
San Jose State: Brent Brennan out, Ken Niumatalolo in
Niumatalolo not running the triple option = I have no idea, but I will be paying attention. His tenure here will test how much culture and leadership are transferrable even when a coach discards the only scheme anyone has ever associated him with.
South Alabama: Kane Wommack out, Major Applewhite in
Not exciting or imaginative in any way. Might still work! But it gets no points for artistic vision.
Syracuse: Dino Babers out, Fran Brown in
Syracuse is a hard recruiting job, and if Syracuse expects Brown’s success on the trail as Georgia’s DBs coach to travel north with him, I wish everyone good luck. But: I think Brown might be a “fuckin’ football coach,” too, as Richard and Godfrey would say. We just don’t know much about him given that he’s never been a coordinator. Kirby Smart does not strike me as the type of dude who puts someone in charge of his defensive backs unless that guy knows ball in his bones, and that makes me optimistic that Brown can have some success in a place where it’s difficult to woo sought-after players.
Texas A&M: Jimbo Fisher out, Mike Elko in
College Station has made very little national noise since Elko took over. I don’t mean “they haven’t been recruiting.” I just mean they haven’t been talking a lot. That seems good.
Tulane: Willie Fritz out, Jon Sumrall in
If you put 100 athletic directors in a room and asked them whether they’d prefer Fritz or Sumrall to lead their program starting tomorrow, would 50 of them pick Fritz? As good as Fritz is, I am not sure.
Troy: Jon Sumrall out, Gerad Parker in
A year ago, Parker became Notre Dame’s offensive coordinator after the school did not come through with the offer to pry away Utah’s OC instead. Notre Dame fans did not seem at all broken up about losing Parker and were excited to get Mike Denbrock out of LSU as his replacement. I think it’s fair to classify this one as a “could work out, but it’s a bit of a head-scratcher” hire.
UCLA: Chip Kelly out, DeShaun Foster in
UCLA’s problems are structural. This program’s potential will remain mythical until Angelenos start caring more about college football, UCLA alums get more excited about spending money on football, and/or a nice tract of land magically appears somewhere closer to Westwood than Pasadena. None of that makes it less true that Chip was winning at sub-Jim Mora Jr. levels and a change was good for everyone. Can Foster, a popular alum who’s been on staff since 2017, get a few more butts in seats for what could be a rough first Big Ten year?
ULM: Terry Bowden out, Bryant Vincent in
Vincent was an important part of Bill Clark’s staff at UAB when the Blazers were doing pretty well a few years ago. It’s a little surprising to me that after UAB didn’t make him Clark’s successor, all he could get last year was New Mexico’s offensive coordinator job. The Lobos went from 129th and 130th in Offensive SP+ the prior few years to 85th with Vincent and his old UAB QB, Dylan Hopkins. That’s something, and something will have to do.
UTEP: Dana Dimel out, Scotty Walden in
I am not sure I would have fired Dana Dimel.
Washington: Kalen DeBoer out, Jedd Fisch in
Our podcast has existed for four football seasons. In that time, I have never gotten a hire as wrong as I got Fisch at Arizona. Fisch had put together some uninspiring seasons as an offensive coordinator. (The thing that stuck in my mind was the lack of development of Josh Rosen at UCLA behind a horrid line.) I did not see what Arizona saw. He did brilliantly in Tucson, and the most impressive thing was how he backfilled his roster with depth and found quick replacements when bigger programs (like USC, several times) went shopping through his roster in the portal. Fisch understands there’s a food chain and doesn’t cry about it, but instead tries to assert his own place in it.
Tough conference, though. Hoo boy. UW’s Playoff roster has fallen apart due to eligibility lapses, draft decisions, and transfers. Time for Fisch to repeat a trick.
Wyoming: Craig Bohl out, Jay Sawvel in
The defense was always the much more competent half of Bohl’s program, so promoting Bohl’s defensive coordinator after his retirement tracks.
Here is a question: If Utah State can periodically rip off 10-win seasons and win the league, and UNLV can play in the Mountain West Championship, shouldn’t Wyoming think about winning more than eight games?
Elsewhere in Split Zone Duo news
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Richard Johnson, Steven Godfrey, and I were in Nashville this week for our annual podcast meetings. We’re excited to share the fruits of those meetings with you soon. Let’s just say that our new strength coach is a total beast, our early enrollees are already bonding, and we’ll be very multiple schematically. The goal is to compete for championships.
This was excellent. I’d suggest Syracuse and Fran Brown are already having recruiting success like we’ve not seen. I’m not sure it’s replicable without some wins next season (schedule looks relatively tame) but he’s off to a monster start. A top 40 class at a place that hasn’t had that since they started keeping track and a top 5 (last I checked) transfer class is pretty, pretty good. We’ll see if he can coach. But talent is upgraded.
Was the Stockstill retirement press conference like the Krusty the Klown retirement press conference?
"Why now? Why not 15 years ago?"